Misinformation around COVID-19 is rampant; here's the easiest way to set the record straight

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Very few situations are black-and-white; except perhaps that my wife is the best. There are often nuances that need to be considered to get the full picture. This applies to the topic of COVID-19 just as much, if not more, than anything else. While some facts are clear to most, others... not so much. So what went wrong? And is there a way to try to bridge the gap between polarized groups of people who clearly get their information from different sources?

First, it seems clear that everybody agrees on at least 1 thing: 

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus labelled SARS-COV-2.

However, it seems that we cannot move even 1 more step forward without running into disagreements! Try to answer any of these questions and you will not find a consensus:

• What's the origin of the new coronavirus?
• How quickly does the virus get transmitted between individuals?
• Once infected, what are all the potential symptoms of COVID-19?
• What is the proportion of infected individuals who display symptoms?
• What are the treatments that help COVID-19 patients get better?
• How many people have died because of COVID-19?
• What is the death rate of infected individuals?
• What are the factors that influence the chances of survival?
• Why did Bill Gates create the virus using 5G technology?
• Etc...

All kinds of experts, from scientists with PHDs to YouTubers with large egos, have weighed in on these questions. 

However, we are all bombarded by so much information (it's Al Gore's fault) that it's hard to figure out who's telling the truth, be it on purpose or not. Because, as a side note, that's one of the tragedies here... perhaps I am naïve but, I don't think there are that many people lying on purpose. Most people just re-share, re-tweet, or simply believe something they read because it seems right, without thinking too much about it. Therefore, when faced with a different answer, we all conclude that the "other side" must be wrong, if not flat out insane. Nobody thinks they are the sheep; everybody else is.

Overheard somewhere: so Hugo, you're working on this thing called the World of Facts, why haven't you solved all of our disagreements and misinformation problems already?

Going back to our list of questions, is there one that we can identify as being contentious, yet easy to answer, one way or the other? I think the answer is a solid... kind of. And I won't say which one yet, I will just start with some assumptions.

(FACTUAL ANALYSIS STARTS HERE)

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Assumption 1: municipalities report the number of people who die within their jurisdictions as accurately as possible.

Assumption 2: the city of New York is no exception to assumption 1; the reported number of people who died each week since January 2017 is fairly accurate. 

Assumption 3: given assumptions 1 and 2, the weekly number of deaths (from all causes) displayed on the USA's CDC website is an accurate representation/model of the real number of deaths in New York City over the last 4 years.

In other words, I am assuming that New York city's authorities have not purposely forged numbers; what we see on the CDC's website is reliable, within a small margin of error. We can thus look at the data to see how the number of people who have died within the city, from all causes combined, has changed over time.

So what do we get if we look around April 2020 for New York City's weekly deaths numbers?

• March 28th: 1,700 more deaths than an average week
• April 4th: 5,100
• April 11th: 7,700 (600% compared to the average week)
• April 18th: 4,800
• April 25th: 3,000
• May 2nd: 2,800

And what does that mean?

Over the last 3 years, there were around 1,000 people reported to have died within New York City in any given week. However, around the month of April 2020, the average was above 4,000 per week, 4x the normal. In other words, within a 6-week period, New York City recorded the deaths of around 31,000 people, which is 25,000 additional deaths (roughly 4 times) more than any random 6-week period.

What else does it mean?

During a 6-week period around April 2020, COVID-19 probably caused the deaths, directly or indirectly, of 25,000 people within New York City. In any given year, these people would not have died, even if COVID-19 was only the indirect cause of their deaths, in cases where someone was already critically ill for instance.

What does that not mean?

This, however, does not tell much more, on its own. These facts do not mean the virus is directly killing people at any specific rate, it doesn't mean we know how it spreads, it doesn't mean we know how it originated and it doesn't tell us much about what we are supposed to do. Each individual piece of information should be taken on its own and verified, before jumping to any other conclusions.

OPINIONATED CONCLUSION

There would be a lot more to discuss and investigate after that, obviously, but I will let you continue your own quest, and I hope that you will tell me if something looks wrong here. 

However, I would hate myself for not ending on a more positive note, as that does not mean that we should be in complete fear of COVID-19; it just means that we need to be vigilant. In other words, the good news here is that the viral infection was controlled relatively quickly in NYC. Back in April, we knew so little (even though we could have, but that's a different story...) yet people managed to change some of their habits quickly to avoid an even worse situation. It's a super crowded city where the spread was swift, and could continue to be. Yet, since then, even though cases have kept being reported, we don't see any giant scary spikes, and hospitals are not overflowing.

Therefore, this also implies that, as hard as the measures can be, we are truly saving lives here. If only we could help more those who suffer economically, socially, or mentally, throughout this pandemic, I think we could really come out of this mess stronger together.

-- Written by Hugo for the World of Facts

Remember, this is just a BLOG, 

please visit the prototype at WorldOfFactsGame.com